Tough decisions ahead for Colletti

Throughout the course of the baseball season the job of general manager is tenuous at best. They are lauded as heroes when they land big-name free agents, yet within days (sometimes hours) fans are calling for their heads on a platter when things go awry. In fact, the only person on the team with a bigger target on their back is the manager.

Anyone who has ever met Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti and had an opportunity to speak with him at length (which is usually always – Ned loves to talk), knows firsthand that he is incredibly smart. He doesn’t miss a thing and Heaven knows he is the grand master of deception – not lies, but deception. He’s like a Clayton Kershaw curveball when you’re looking fastball. Colletti’s skill set is not meant to give you false information, it is to protect the best interests of the team from the sometimes less-than-scrupulous media, which has a tendency to blow things out of proportion or divulge things prematurely.

Although Ned Colletti has made some really bad deals in his six years as the Dodgers General Manager, he has also made some of the best in recent baseball history. (Video capture courtesy of Dodgers Media Network)

Although Ned Colletti has made some really bad deals in his eight years as the Dodgers General Manager, he has also made some of the best in recent baseball history. (Video capture courtesy of Dodgers Media Network)

After spending any time talking with Colletti, you come away with a sense that he gave you a tremendous amount of information, but when you go to put it in writing, you realize that you now have more questions than answers. (Did I mention that Ned Colletti is incredibly smart?).

With teams not permitted to begin negotiations with their soon-to-be free agents until the day after the World Series concludes, trying to figure out which free agents a team will attempt to re-sign and who they will let go is nothing more that a guessing game. Whereas guys who are in the twilight of their careers (usually utility bench players) would gladly re-sign with their team and usually at a bargain price, guys who still have a few good years left or guys who are coming off a banner season may be more inclined to test the free agent market. By the same token, teams may not want to bring some of these guys back or many not want to pick up their option year and buy them out and send them on their way. Again, it is purely a guessing game until it actually happens.

As the Dodgers come off of one of their greatest seasons in franchise history and are clearly in a position to dominate the NL West for several years to come (in spite of their injury-ridden exit from the NLCS), they have twelve pending free agents on their 40-man roster. And though most of the primaries are still under contract for several more years, there are a few soon-to-be free agents who played a huge role in the Dodgers success in 2013 – perhaps none greater than third baseman Juan Uribe and set-up man Brian Wilson.

Uribe, who just concluded the final year of what was once considered one of Colletti’s worst signings at 3-years/$21 million, had a huge 2013 season. And though Uribe finished the season with an above average triple slash of .278/.331/.438 and 12 home runs, it was his Gold Glove-worthy .983 fielding percentage (and NLDS clinching home run) that was his biggest contribution to the 2013 NL West Champion Dodgers. In 297 chances, Uribe made only five errors and played a better third base than Adrian Beltre’s (L.A.) Dodgers franchise best .978 in 2004 (10 errors in 452 chances).

It would be an injustice if Dodgers third baseman Juan Uribe does not win a Gold Glove for his stellar play this season. (Photo credit - Richard Mackson)

It would be a crime if Dodgers third baseman Juan Uribe does not win a Gold Glove for his outstanding defense this season. (Photo credit – Richard Mackson)

Wilson, like Uribe, will be remembered as one of Colletti’s best acquisitions in his eight years as the Dodgers GM. He joined the team on July 30 and made his Dodger debut on August 22 after a 16-month recovery and rehab from his second Tommy John surgery. And though the Dodgers were already well on their way to their historic 42-8 run that began on June 22, Wilson was absolutely dominate out of the Dodgers bullpen and quickly earned the roll of 8th inning set-up man for closer Kenley Jansen. Wilson finished the regular season with a 2-1 record and a phenomenal 0.66 ERA while walking only four and striking out 13 in 13.2 innings pitched. In the postseason Wilson appeared in six games without allowing a run while giving up four hits, two walks and striking out eight in his six innings of work. Wilson also extended his consecutive scoreless postseason innings streak to 16.2 – four shy of the MLB record of 20.2 held by John Rocker.

The big question, perhaps the biggest of any that Colletti and the Dodgers face this off-season is: Will Brian Wilson be willing to return to the Dodgers as a set-up man for Kenley Jansen when he will be among the most highly sought after closers on the free agent market? Although Wilson was stellar as the Dodgers set-up man, his forte is clearly that of a closer, which is unquestionably the role he wants to return to. On the other side of the coin, Wilson lives in L.A. and he thoroughly enjoyed his brief time with the Dodgers. That said, I anticipate that Colletti will offer Wilson a contract similar to the 3-year/22.5 million contract that he gave to Brandon League last off-season – and we all know how that one worked out. However, if Wilson is willing to accept an offer similar to this (although I believe that it will be closer to $27 million) and if he is willing to remain in the set-up role (for the time being, at least), such a contract could prove to be well worth the time and money – if he stays healthy.

In addition to Uribe and Wilson, there are three Dodger starting pitchers up for free agency – left-hander Chris Capuano and right-handers Ricky Nolasco and Edinson Volquez. And though it is unlikely that the Dodgers will re-sign all three of these guys, it’s safe to say that they will most likely re-sign at least one of them. Without argument Nolasco will be among the most sought after free agent starting pitchers this off-season and will undoubtedly be seeking a huge multi-year/multi-million dollar contract (which he will definitely get from someone), whereas Capuano and Volquez could be had relatively cheap. In all honesty I believe that Capuano has pitched his last game in a Dodger uniform but Volquez showed signs of excellence late in the season and may be a bargain for Colletti to re-sign.

Although second baseman Mark Ellis is 36 years old, he still plays the game like a 26-year-old and it is entirely possible that the Dodgers might pick up his $5.75 million option for 2014. That said, I anticipate that his role as the Dodgers everyday second baseman will be significantly reduced in 2014. Ellis may even become a bench player if the Dodgers go after a much younger free agent second baseman this off-season, as rumors suggest they will.

Here is a complete list of the twelve current Dodgers who will become free agents this off-season:

  • Chris Capuano ($8 million mutual option for 2014 with a $1 million buyout)
  • Mark Ellis ($5.75 million club option for 2014 with a $1 million buyout)
  • Jerry Hairston
  • J.P. Howell
  • Carlos Marmol
  • Ricky Nolasco
  • Nick Punto
  • Skip Schumaker
  • Juan Uribe
  • Edinson Volquez
  • Brian Wilson
  • Michael Young

As you can see, Colletti has some very difficult decisions to make in the coming weeks, but one thing is for certain – you better be looking curveball from him.

 

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9 Responses to “Tough decisions ahead for Colletti”

  1. OldBrooklynFan says:

    We can have a lot of ideas for what should or could happen but I don’t think anyone of us knows what will happen. The Uribe situation reminds me somewhat of Adian Beltre’s after his successful last season with the Dodgers. It seemed that no matter what he did in his last season the team was already set to let him go after those first 2 bad seasons. I hope to see more of Uribe in a Dodger uniform.
    To me the beggist delemma seems to be with Wilson, I sure hope whatever does come out of this works out for the betterment of the team.

  2. Bluenose Dodger says:

    I expect the first order of business is to sign Don Mattingly to an extension. I don’t think Mattingly and Colletti wouold be meeting together if Mattingly was being let go.

  3. Bluenose Dodger says:

    Looks like 2B is looked after. “The Dodgers have agreed to a four-year, $28 million deal with Cuban middle-infield prospect Alexander Guerrero, according to industry sources.”

  4. Truebluewill says:

    Ron, you bring up a lot of good points. There is also Clayton Kershaw who is arbitration eligible again this year. I think the Dodgers would like to lock him up to a long term contract this winter. I have mixed feeling about Uribe. I know he had a fantastic season this year, but can he repeat it next. If they do bring him back I think it should be for only one year. What about the four outfielders, Kemp, Ethier, Crawford, and Puig. Are they all coming back? Will they try to trade Ethier? Also, some times I feel Puig can use a little more seasoning in the minors with all the bonehead plays he makes. I think it will be a very interesting off season.

  5. OldBrooklynFan says:

    They seem to be blaming Ethier’s performance on his poor health, but I still wouldn’t be surprise if he’s gone shortly after Kemp is healthy enough to return, unless he would accept becoming their 4th outfielder.

  6. bigbluebird says:

    Lots of fun scenarios. As well, the seemingly daily tension with the Mattingly situation tosses in another element. For me the most important elements are Howell and Uribe. Both guys hit their stride last year. Howell in my opinion was one of Colletti’s most important acquisitions. Not even talking about his bat, Uribe had a fabulous year with the glove. Would love to have Wilson, but after the second Tommy John, I just don’t believe he is going to last long enough for a 3 year contract, but then again it isn’t my money, right?

    I have a feeling that Mark Ellis will be coming back. Even though Guerrero has signed, he is going to need some seasoning and won’t be ready by the start of the season. His club option is pretty reasonable for another year.

    Also, the rumors of getting David Price is the most interesting. Imagine a Kershaw – Greinke – Price – Ryu rotation. I think a lot of re-signs on the starting pitching side will have to do with whether they have a chance to get him.

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