Clayton Kershaw’s meter is running

Here’s an unpleasant thought – a 2015 Dodgers team without Clayton Kershaw.

Think it can’t happen?

Think again.

For the past couple of years, several of the regulars over on the ThinkBlueLA forum have repeatedly said words to the effect of: Sign Clayton Kershaw to a long-term contract extension right now because Kershaw will never be any cheaper than he is right now.

Obviously we were sharing our frustration amongst ourselves because Ned Colletti or Frank McCourt undoubtedly never dropped in on our forum (that we know of). It was frustration brought about by the Dodgers signing outrageous deferred contracts for guys like Manny Ramirez, Andruw Jones and Jason Schmidt, and then falling into bankruptcy, and then falling into the middle of an ugly divorce. As a result, there was absolutely no way that Kershaw would ever be given an expensive contract extension under those circumstances. What was most humorous about all of this (in a not-so-humorous way) is that we were talking about a contract extension in the five to six-year/$80-$100 million range.

The mere thought of Clayton Kershaw in any uniform other than a Dodger uniform is absolutely terrifying. (Photo credit - Ron Cervenka)

The mere thought of Clayton Kershaw in any uniform other than a Dodger uniform is absolutely terrifying – but it could happen. (Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)

My how things have changed.

One thing that hasn’t changed, however, is that even with a new ownership group with very deep pockets, Clayton Kershaw still hasn’t been given a contract extension and he is exactly three days away from winning his second NL Cy Young Award in three years.

What this means is that had the Dodgers signed Kershaw to that seemingly huge five to six-year/$80-$100 million contract extension two years ago, it would have been the greatest signing in the 130-year history of the game – for the Dodgers.

What it also means is that when Kershaw finally does sign a contract extension, it will now probably be in the seven to eight-year/$280-$300 million range and will be the greatest signing in the 130-year history of the game –  for Clayton Kershaw.

Too bad Ned Colletti or Frank McCourt didn’t drop in on our forum, huh?

The point here is that Clayton Kershaw’s meter has never stopped running – not even for one second. With each passing day, and each passing game, and each passing win, and each passing strikeout, and each ERA title, and each Cy Young Award, Kershaw’s value keeps going up and up and up, and is now to the point where he will make baseball salary history when he finally does sign a contract extension… if he signs a contract extension, that is.

Just pay the man and be done with it. (Photo credit - Ron Cervenka)

Clayton Kershaw is the greatest left-hander to come along in nearly 50 years. What the heck are the Dodgers waiting for? (Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)

Heaven forbid that the Dodgers do not sign Kershaw to a contract extension within the next few weeks and he is forced into an arbitration hearing in February (which he would undoubtedly win), thus becoming a free agent at the end of the 2014 season. If this happens, the Dodgers will have one very unhappy future Hall of Famer on their hands – unhappy enough that he would refuse to negotiate with the Dodgers during the 2014 season and would unquestionably test the free agent market for 2015. And rest assured that if the Dodgers are unwilling to give Kershaw a seven to eight-year/$280-$300 million-type contract he will be seeking, someone else will.

It’s time for Ned Colletti, Stan Kasten, Mark Walter, Magic Johnson and the rest of the Guggenheim Baseball Management group to quit screwing around and get this deal done immediately – because Kershaw will never be any cheaper than he is right now.

 

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6 Responses to “Clayton Kershaw’s meter is running”

  1. ebbetsfld says:

    Amen, brother!!!

  2. OldBrooklynFan says:

    It’s really hard to believe that he hasn’t been signed that big contract by now. What could they possibly be waiting for?

    • Ron Cervenka says:

      I think the biggest concern for the Dodgers is the length of the contract. Even at 25 years old (26 in March), going 6, 7, or 8 years for a pitcher is a considerable risk – especially for a power arm.

      Interestingly, Barry Zito is perhaps the best example of signing a guy to a long (7-year) contract (although Zito was 29 when that happened). Zito was very successful in his first seven seasons with the A’s (102-63 / 3.55) at age 22-28, but not so much with the Giants (63-80 / 4.62) at age 29-35.

      Although Zito threw 200+ innings in each of his first 6 full seasons with the A’s (up to age 28), he never threw more than 200 innings in any of his 7 season with the Giants (at age 29+). Kershaw has thrown 200+ innings in each of his last 4 seasons (age 22-25) and threw 107.2 and 171 in his first 2 seasons (age 20 & 21). The biggest difference, however, is that Zito was never really considered a power arm whereas Kershaw is.

      Innings pitched is a really big deal when you compare Kershaw to Koufax, as many people do (and with good cause). Koufax was also a power pitcher and throwing a lot of innings per season is why Sandy was done at age 30. He threw 300+ inning 3 times in his 12-year MLB career and 200+ innings twice. Granted, nobody throws 300 innings anymore but 200 innings in a season is still a lot of wear and tear on an arm.

      All of this aside, the bottom line is that if the Dodgers are unwilling to sign Kershaw to a long-term and very expensive contract, somebody else will.

  3. Norm says:

    Lately, it seems likely that it is Kershaw, not the Dodgers, who is holding up the contract negotiations.

  4. OldBrooklynFan says:

    Regardless of which side is holding things up, I would gamble that an agreement will be reached before the start of next season.

  5. Bluenose Dodger says:

    I don’t know why they are talking about an extended contract now. Should have been done three years ago when it was much less expensive and seven years took Clayton to about age 30.

    Haven’t they heard of deferred money?

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