Oddsmakers still favor Dodgers to win World Series – so there’s that

I will be the very first to admit that I am not much of a gambler. Oh sure, I’ve had my moments at blackjack tables in Las Vegas over the years. But to say that I am an accomplished gambler couldn’t be further from the truth.

That being said, when I treated my now 22-year-old son to his first-ever Las Vegas trip this past June, I dropped a hundred down on the Dodgers to win the 2017 World Series. At the time the Dodgers were 6-to-1 favorites to win it all. They are now 3-to-1 favorites, so should they in fact win their first World Series title in 29 years, my one hundred dollar bet will earn me $500 – a sound investment any way you slice it.

Bovada World Series odds as of September 15, 2017.

That’s the good news.

The bad news is that their incredible 61-29 (.677) pre-All-Star break record was followed by a 35-24 (.593) record after the break; still very respectable (thanks to their historic 43-7 run) – except for the fact that they have lost 19 of their last 30 games (.366) with only 13 games remaining in the regular season.

Granted, the Dodgers are already guaranteed a postseason berth (via the Wild Card) because of their MLB-best 96-53 record, are but four games shy of clinching their fifth consecutive NL West title, and still hold the best overall odds to win the World Series (according to Bovada), but the hard-charging Cleveland Indians, who just set an MLB record by winning 22 consecutive games, are now very close on their heels at 3.25-to-1 odds to win the Fall Classic.

Las Vegas oddsmakers have the Dodgers as 3-to-1 favorites to win their first World Series title in 29 years.
(Photo courtesy of LA Dodgers)

Realistically, Las Vegas odds mean absolutely nothing when it comes to who will win or not win the World Series and are based entirely on the regular season standings heading into the postseason. However, as we all know, the postseason is an entirely different animal than the regular season. It’s usually not the best team that ends up winning the Series, it’s the hottest team – although the 2016 Chicago Cubs blew this theory out of the water when they not only finished the regular season with an MLB-best 103-58 record, but also won their first World Series title in 108 years in seven games over the (wait for it…) Cleveland Indians, who finished the 2016 season at 94-67. In fact, according to Oddsshack.com‘s Joe Osborne, the Dodgers are actually in a less-than-ideal position with two weeks (13 games) remaining in the regular season in spite of currently owning MLB’s best record.

“With the recent successes of the Indians and struggles of the Dodgers, I’ve been hearing a lot about the importance of peaking at the right time,” writes Osborne. “Some have been silly to argue that the Indians are peaking at the wrong time while it’s good that the Dodgers are getting all this losing out of their system prior to the playoffs. I call that rubbish, mainly because I haven’t seen any stats to back up either argument.

“So, I went digging for some stats, and as it turns out, it’s complete rubbish – having a strong September is very important for contenders entering the playoffs,” added Osborne. “Looking at the last 10 World Series winners, they’ve combined to have a 62.23 win percentage in September regular-season games. Only one team during that span, the 2015 Royals, had a win percentage below .500 in September.”

(Images courtesy of Joe Osborne – oddsshack.com)

Although Osborne makes a very compelling and well-researched argument to suggest that the surging Cleveland Indians have a distinct advantage over the seemingly sputtering Dodgers heading into the postseason – this in spite of the Dodgers still holding the best odds – it’s what happens between the lines during two weeks in October that really matter, not what happens in a Las Vegas sports book or an on-line gambling site.

Play ball!

 

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2 Responses to “Oddsmakers still favor Dodgers to win World Series – so there’s that”

  1. CruzinBlue says:

    Are you certain the oddsmakers are factoring in Curtis Granderson?

    His dinger just now secured his spot in the lineup through the duration of the postseason. Not that Andre Ethier will ever get a sincere shot at proving he’s healthy…

  2. oldbrooklynfan says:

    I feel about the same way as I’ve felt all season long. I never thought that the Dodgers would run away with the postseason. I always felt that they have as much of a chance to go all the way, as they ever have.

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