Should Dodgers redirect their focus from Harper to Realmuto?

With Opening Day still 111 days away (but who’s counting), the best we can do is check out Twitter throughout the day for the latest breaking Hot Stove news and/or listen to MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM in an attempt to quench our off-season baseball thirst … as best we can, that is.

On Wednesday I did a little of both … ok, a lot of both. (What can I say, I’m really thirsty).

During Wednesday’s ‘Inside Pitch’ show hosted by Casey Stern and Brad Lidge, the former Astros, Phillies, and Nationals right-hander once dubbed “Lights Out Lidge” said something that I initially scoffed at, but the more I thought about it, the more I bought into the idea.

Once the daily hot topic of highly coveted free agent outfielder Bryce Harper ran its course (with the Dodgers still among the front-runners to land him), it quickly turned to Miami Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto, as it also has nearly every day since the off-season began. Upon the change of gears, Lidge immediately became quite adamant about Realmuto, something that he rarely does.

“The Dodgers would be better off going after J.T. Realmuto than Bryce Harper,” Lidge said. “He’s still under team control for two more years and after that they can decide whether or not to keep him.

Austin Barnes is a back-up catcher at best and Realmuto would be a huge upgrade for them,” Lidge added. “They already have plenty of outfield depth.”

It’s hard to find anything wrong with Lidge’s assessment.

For those unfamiliar with J.T. Realmuto, who the Marlins have made very clear they want to move in exchange for what figures to be a boatload of top prospects, he is ranked among the top catchers in the game today. During the just-concluded 2018 season, the 27-year-old Del City, Oklahoma native and Marlins third round pick in the 2010 draft out of Carl Albert High School in Midwest City, Oklahoma (Matt Kemp‘s home town), Realmuto posted a slash-line of .277 / .340 / .484 for an OPS of .768, while slugging 21 home runs, 30 doubles, three triples and driving in 74 runs.

In his six games against the Dodgers in 2018, Realmuto went 9-for-24 (.375) with four home runs (including this sixth inning solo shot off of right-hander Pedro Baez on May 16), one double, and six RBI. This one would prove to be the game-winner for Miami in the Dodgers 6-5 loss at Marlins Park.
(Video capture courtesy of SportsNet LA)

But what really jumps out at you is that Realmuto’s career slash-line of .279 / .327 / .442 / .768 has gone up every year in each of his five major league seasons. He is also under team control through the 2021 season, after which he becomes a free agent. This increases his allure to the Dodgers significantly, as Dodgers current top catching prospect Keibert Ruiz will be 23-years old in 2021, if you get my free agent drift.

In contrast, Barnes’ career slash-line over his four MLB seasons is .240 / .364 / .372 for a career OPS of .735, with 12 career home runs, 23 doubles, two triples, and 55 RBI. However, in 2018, the soon-to-be 29-year-old (on December 28) Fullerton, California native slashed a less that ideal .205 / .329 / .290 for an OPS of .619, while hitting only four home runs, five doubles and driving in 14. He also struck out 67 times and posted a team-worst .069 batting average during the 2018 postseason that included going 0-for-11 during the World Series.

An upgrade indeed.

To be fair, Barnes started only 53 of the Dodgers 163 regular season games in 2018, with (now) former Dodgers catcher Yasmani Grandal having started 110 of them. Then again, Barnes’ offensive numbers may have been even worse had he seen more action, so there’s that to consider.

As for Grandal, his offensive numbers were actually very similar to Realmuto’s in 2018. The 30-year-old La Habana, Cuba native posted a slash-line of .241 / .349 / .466 / .815, with 24 home runs, 23 doubles, two triples (no, really), while driving in 68.

But where Realmuto would really help the Dodgers is with his defense. Behind the plate in 2018, Realmuto committed only seven errors in 879 total chanced for a .992 fielding percentage (FPCT). He also had eight passed balls and allowed 34 wild pitches to get past him, while throwing out 21 of 55 would-be base stealers for a 38 percent caught stealing rate.

Interestingly enough, Grandal also committed seven errors, but did so in 1,168 total chances for a .994 FPCT. He had nine passed balls and allowed 31 wild pitches to get past him, while throwing out 20 of 72 would-be base stealers for a 28 percent caught stealing rate. Unfortunately, he committed two very costly errors in 79 total chances (.975 FPCT) during the 2018 postseason, with three passed balls and allowing three wild pitches to get past him.

As for Barnes, although a much smaller sample size, he committed only one error in 494 total chances (.998 FPCT) with one passed ball and allowed eight wild pitches to get past him. He threw out seven of 31 would-be base stealers for a 23 percent caught stealing rate.

Although Realmuto’s and Grandal’s (and to a much lesser extent Barnes’) defensive numbers are quite similar, it’s that caught stealing thing that could be the game-changer for the Dodgers moving forward. I mean, let’s be real here, a 38 percent CS rate is considerably better than 28 percent and 23 percent respectively, right?

It is (was) also Grandal’s steady decline over his seven MLB seasons compared to Realmuto’s ascension in his five MLB seasons that make Realmuto far more attractive, and not just for the Dodgers but for every other team in the MLB. He is, hands down, the most sought-after catcher available this off-season … not to mention the fact that there is no way in hell that the Dodgers would even consider re-signing Grandal after he declined their pre-determined (by the MLB Player’s Association) $17.9 million qualifying offer.

So who should it be, Dodger fans? Should the Dodgers continue to pursue Bryce Harper or should they redirect their focus on J.T Realmuto?

I know who “Lights Out Lidge” would choose.

 

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8 Responses to “Should Dodgers redirect their focus from Harper to Realmuto?”

  1. Boxout7 says:

    My two-cents, pass on both.

    As noted, Dodgers are deep on outfielders and Harper has already turned down $300M/10 yrs. What would an extension on Puig cost?

    The prospect cost for Realmuto is too much. Those prospects are better spent on a top-line starter or reliever. Ruiz is the catching future for the Dodgers with Smith as a back-up if Ruiz falters. They are both projected to be ready by 2020.

    Don’t rule out a reunion with Grandal on a one-year contract. No qualifying offer to reduce his value after next season. And from the Dodgers standpoint a one-year contract at $20M, and no prospect cost, is perfect for Realmuto light.

    • SoCalBum says:

      Grandal? That ship has sailed unless Dodgers are the only option. I think the end of year boos and again losing the starting catching job to Barnes in post season was the final straw for Grandal.

    • Daniel says:

      I agree that neither of them should be acquired. As far as Grandal on a 1yr contract? I can see that happening but I agree with other posters that it would be uncomfortable for both him and the fans. I’m sure there are other 1 yr options to trade for, Hundley and AJ Ellis both come to mind.

  2. SoCalBum says:

    If both will help Dodgers get both of them. Harper is simply a function of money and adding him to the OF for several seasons makes it easier to part with Verdugo, or Pederson, or ??? Might put Dodgers over the tax threshold in 2019 (unless some combination of Kemp, Puig, Wood, or Hill are traded for lower cost pieces, or prospects) but significant money coming off payroll in 2020. Dodgers all in for WS champs in 2019!!!

    • Boxout7 says:

      Not entirely true regarding Harper. Harper received a QO therefore the following will happen.

      • A team that neither exceeded the luxury tax in the preceding season nor receives revenue sharing will lose its second-highest selection in the following year’s Draft as well as $500,000 from its international bonus pool. If it signs two such players, it will also forfeit its third-highest remaining pick. The 12 clubs that fall into this category during the 2018-19 offseason are the Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Phillies, Rangers, White Sox and Yankees.

      Examples: A team with one pick in each round of the 2019 Rule 4 Draft would lose its second-round pick. A team with two first-round picks would lose its second-highest first round-pick.

      Dodgers have the 25th and 31st picks in the 2019 MLB draft. Therefore, I think they lose the 31st pick. Not insignificant.

  3. I wish they could have both, but one of them wouldn’t be bad.

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