April 17th, 2012 at 9:40 pm 
by Ron Cervenka I was maybe six years old the first time I heard my Dad say it – “Walks kill you.” He was, of course, referring to the base on balls type of walks, not those intended to help you live longer. Throughout my Little League career and into American Legion ball, he must have said it a thousand more times, and he was right; walks do kill you. Although I don’t know the exact numbers, I would venture a guess that when a closer allows a walk in the 9th inning, that base runner probably scores at least a third of the time.
Such was the case on this, the first game of a six-game road trip for the Dodgers when Brewers first baseman Mat Gamel drew an eight-pitch walk off thus far perfect Dodger closer Javy Guerra in the bottom of the 9th inning with the Dodgers hanging onto a 4-3 lead. I mean come on, with runners now at first and second and nobody out, did you really think that Guerra was going get to Brewers to hit into a triple play like he did the Padres just two short days ago? Come on, there are what, maybe two triple plays in the MLB every year? When ball four was called on Gamel and for the first time all season (albeit we’re only into its third week), I actually felt that the golden horseshoe that the Dodgers’ have been carrying around was going to drop. “Walks kill you,” I suddenly heard my Dad say in my head (he passed many years ago). But then Guerra struck out Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy and there was now one out and the possibility for a game-ending double play and a seventh straight win for the Dodgers and an MLB-leading sixth save for Guerra. “Maybe not, Dad,” I said to the sky.
But in the end, Dad was right, as Dads usually are. On a 2-2 count, Brewers pinch hitter George Kattaras laced a slider into the right field gap scoring pinch runner Carlos Gomez from second and Mat Gamel from first for the walk-off 5-4 win, and with that – ‘clunk’, the golden horseshoe hit the ground.
It’s pretty hard to get down on the Dodgers for this loss; after all, they came into Milwaukee with an MLB leading 9-1 record. Certainly they weren’t going to go 161-1, although it was a nice thought. But I’ll be the first to admit that with an 8th and 9th inning duo of Kenley Jansen and Javy Guerra, I did kind of think that they would win this one, but then again, “Walks kill you.”
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“Anything you can do I can do better, I can do anything better than you.”
Andre Ethier picked up his team-leading 17th RBI with his 2-run home run in the 8th inning on Tuesday night. (Photo by Jon SooHoo)
Now there’s an oldie but a goodie, huh? But there isn’t a better song than this Broadway classic to describe what is going on between Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier this season. Although Kemp clearly has the overall better numbers, it seems that the two Dodger sluggers are playing ping pong with one another in the home run and RBI race. I have to believe that these two fierce competitors (and good friends) are having an absolute blast out there; you can see it in their faces and in their play. Although Kemp is ahead of Ethier 6 home runs to 4, Andre edged past Matt in the RBI department after his two run opposite field blast in tonight’s game to give him 17 RBIs, one better than Kemp’s 16. All I can say is KEEP IT UP, BOYS!
GO DODGERS!
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Is it just me, or does anyone else think Guerra was trying too hard last night? It seemed to me he was pitching outside himself and trying to throw too hard.
I think that Javy may have fallen victim to his own recent success and became a little over confident. Perhaps this blown save and loss will bring him back to reality a bit. That said, I am definitely not worried about Javy – he is a good one. There aren’t too many closers out there with four different pitches and he can throw them in any count.
Walks do Kill.. Just like you say. I feel as long as Javy keeps those walks to a minimum, we’ll be alright. Thats really what the closer role comes down to. Throw strikes, if they hit it, they earn it. By all means do NOT just give it to them by throwing balls. I think we all have sore memories of how many times Broxton came up in 1 run games and put the first batter on with 4 pitches. Thats the worst thing a closer can do. Now you have a baserunner who of course is going to be a fast pinchrunner adding to the pressure of the situation. Most closers are at their best comfort level when the bases are clear. Thats a solid reason why the starters have been so strong, look at our walks compared to strikeouts. Always make em earn it. Great site!
I know I lean toward the negative, in almost anything. Since I was a child I always hoped for the best and prepared for the worse. My life taught me that.
Whenever a Dodger closer comes into a game in a save situation, I seem to hold my breath until it’s over.
I’ll admit I’m more confident in some closers but it’s not much difference and I seem to never get use to it.
I usually picture a bad scenerio in my mind and just cringe.
It’s really a great relief when the closer succeeds in closing out the game and we win.
Sometimes it ends good and sometimes it ends bad, but I always feel prepared.
2 days in a row. Lead off walk killed them.
Fan graphs reports that a lead off walk in an inning eventually comes around to score a run 37.98 % of the time. This is based on over 150,000 instances, so it’s a very statistically significant sample.
Wow! I was just guesstimating when I said about a third of the time. Not bad, eh?