Can a Healthy Matt Kemp Carry the Dodgers?

There is no doubt in anybody’s mind that Matt Kemp is one of the best players in the game today, if not THE best player. To have the MVP-type year that he did in 2011 (a title which very few would argue that he was robbed of) and to come out of the chute as smoking hot as he did in the first six weeks of 2012, he has clearly proven that he is a difference maker and a game changer. But is a healthy Matt Kemp (and a streaky Andre Ethier) enough to lead the otherwise anemic Dodger offense to the promised land? There is absolutely no doubt that Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti has this very concern, as he has gone on record as saying that he has been actively shopping for a “power bat” to add to the Kemp and Ethier duo since mid May.

Matt Kemp will most likely come off of the DL after the All-Star break, but can he and teammate Andre Ethier provide enough offense to carry the Dodgers into the post season? (Photo credit Jeffrey Phelps – AP)

Just how anemic has the Dodger offense been since Kemp went on the DL? They are currently 14th out of the 16 National League teams with 45 home runs (twelve of which belong to Kemp) and have almost half as many home runs as the NL leading Rockies (go figure) and the Milwaukee Brewers, where defending NL MVP Ryan Braun has 20 of the Brewers’ 86 home runs.

And it doesn’t end there – the Dodgers are currently 8th in the NL with 607 hits and 6th in the NL in average (.259). To their credit, however, they are 2nd in the NL in OBP at .333 (thanks pretty much entirely to A.J. Ellis and Bobby Abreu). And while one would think that with Ethier’s NL leading 55 RBIs they would be tops in the league in this category, they are (sadly) 9th in the NL with 285 RBIs.

The point here is that ‘no man is an island’… nobody can carry a team by themselves – not even Matt Kemp. It takes offensive contributions from 1 through 8 in the line-up and the Dodgers are seriously struggling in this department. Sure, in a one-run game (and Lord knows the Dodgers have had more than their fair share of these – proof yet again of their weak offense) one guy can come up with a key hit or even a walk-off hit or home run, but absent a good hitting 1 through 8 line-up, all of the pressure lands squarely on the shoulders of Kemp and Ethier and the entire pitching staff to keep their team in the game.

Unfortunately and as Colletti is quickly finding out, there are (and probably will continue to be) very few so-called power bats available leading up to the July 31 trade deadline. This will force Ned to “look old”, that is, look at veteran players on the downside of their careers – something that he has tremendous (albeit unsuccessful) experience with – guys like 36-year-old Astros slugger Carlos Lee or oft injured 33-year-old Kevin Youkilis (or ‘You-kill-us’, as he is being called in Boston this season because of his dismal .225 batting average).

Padres slugger Carlos Quentin figures to be among the most sought-after power bats at the July 31 trade deadline but will undoubtedly cost interested teams a great deal in MLB-ready prospects – an expensive proposition for what will most likely be a rent-a-player. (Photo credit Jeff Chiu – AP)

A far better option (in my opinion) would be for Colletti to make a hard push for Padres outfielder Carlos Quentin, who will be 30 in August. Although Quentin spent the first two months of the 2012 season on the DL recovering from arthroscopic surgery to this right knee, he is 22 for 65 (.338) with six home runs and 13 RBIs in hitter-unfriendly Petco Park since returning to action on May 28. Quentin will be a free agent at the end of this season and with the Padres pretty much out of the race (25-46 and 17 GB), they will undoubtedly be looking to unload Quentin and his current $7.03 million salary and will most likely be unable to afford re-signing him through free agency. That said, if the Dodgers did, in fact, pursue Quentin, it would undoubtedly be as a rental player to try to get into the post season, as he will command a significant raise through free agency. The risk with this, and it’s a big one, is that the Padres will absolutely demand top-tier MLB ready prospects in exchange for their power hitter; and I’m talking Chris Reed, Ethan Martin or Zach Lee kind of prospects – a huge price to pay for a rental player.

It would be nice to think that the Dodgers already have the players that they need on their 25-man and 40-man rosters to make it to the post season but they simply do not, not even with a healthy Matt Kemp and a healthy Andre Ethier in their line-up. As such, look for some big changes on the horizon for the Dodgers – including some that we probably will like, especially for those of us who are fond of the current crop of Dodger minor leaguers.

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2 Responses to “Can a Healthy Matt Kemp Carry the Dodgers?”

  1. Bluenose Dodger says:

    I will not like trading our closest to being ready young pitchers, unless we get top quality, young players in return. I know we must trade top value for top value. I understand we are looking for a bat, a starting pitcher and a left handed reliever. Let’s get a bat which isn’t going to fade in a year or two. Perhaps a Carlos Gonzalez type bat. I don’t want a rental player. I want an important piece of the puzzle for some time.

    Kevin Youkilis is being mentioned as a possible player the Dodgers are pursuing. I don’t believe his acquisition would cost a top prospect. Boston wants to dump him and will take the best offer of a lower level prospect. They will pay part of his contract for a better prospect. I would see the acquisition of Youkilis as putting the proverbial band aid on the broken leg. He might help us get closer to the trade deadline as buyers, but only if he gets smoking hot as players often do when traded. He is now susceptible to injury. He is a get down and dirty player, playing hard, but does he fit in the picture for more than a few months? If he does, we are still in “Ned Days”.

    Just as I didn’t like taking the Giant’s castoffs, I don’t really want the guys who are unhappy and causing waves in Boston.

  2. CRANBROOK MIKE says:

    It will be very interesting to see how this shall unfold, with the changing of the guard in having Stan Kastens now. How much freedom will he give Ned to trade these young prospects away? They may exercise some patience, and keep these prospects. I for one as a fan would be willing to wait for these young stars to come up, forgoing a big bat right now. A little pain now for long term gain later!

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