Dodgers might want to re-think their rotation order

When the Dodgers front office decided not to make a run at free agent right-hander Jordan Zimmerman, they missed out on an opportunity to land the guy who is currently the best starting pitcher in the MLB in the early goings this season. They then decided to pass on David Price, who is currently 2-0 on the season with an MLB-leading 27 strikeouts. Next, they passed on Johnny Cueto, who is currently tied for the most wins this season at three. And then, of course, they failed to re-sign 2015 NL Cy Young runner-up Zack Greinke because they weren’t willing to give him a six-year contract but their division-rival Arizona Diamondbacks were. And though it appears that the Greinke non-decision may have been the best of the bunch (at least for now), missing out on the other three now appears to be a huge mistake.

But instead of landing Zimmerman, Price, Cueto or Greinke, the Dodgers opted to sign 32-year-old left-hander Scott Kazmir to a three-year / $48 million contract to be their number two starter behind staff ace Clayton Kershaw. Yet through his first three starts, Kazmir has been anything but a legitimate number two starter.

Unless he shows marked improvement - and soon, lefty Scott Kazmir should not be number two in the Dodgers rotation; or even three or four. (Photo credit - Jon SooHoo)

Unless he shows a marked improvement and soon, Kazmir does not belong in the number two spot in the Dodgers rotation – or three or four.
(Photo credit – Jon SooHoo)

In his  three starts thus far, Kazmir is 1-1 with a 6.43 ERA. He has allowed 10 earned runs, 15 hits (including three home runs), walked five and struck out 12. But the glaring big problem is that he has made it out of the fourth inning only once in his three starts and has pitched only 14 innings this season. Yet when interviewed, Kazmir speaks as though he is actually doing well and getting better with each start when he actually is not. Oh sure, he only gave up four earned runs in Saturday night’s 4-3 loss to the Giants as compared to the six earned runs he allowed in his first start against them at AT&T Park on April 10 (the result of the aforementioned three home runs) and didn’t allow a home run on Friday, but to claim that he pitched better and that this was his best outing thus far is a bit of a stretch.

“In the early going there were a couple of wild pitches, but overall I actually felt really good,” Kazmir told reporters after his brief outing. “The fastball had more life to it, change up was there, and it was probably the best I’ve felt all year.”

While it is great that the Houston, Texas native is feeling good, his results are not; at least not good enough to warrant the number two spot in the rotation.

Ironically, Kazmir has an opt-out clause in his contract after the 2016 season. The obvious problem with this is that if he does not do well this season, he most certainly won’t be opting out of his contract and the Dodgers will be stuck with him for another two seasons to the tune of a guaranteed $32 million. Then again, if he suddenly turns things around and has a great 2016 season, he will undoubtedly opt out – à la Zack Greinke.

In contrast and in advance of Sunday evening’s series finale against The Hated Ones at Dodger Stadium, Japanese superstar right-hander Kenta Maeda has allowed zero earned runs on 10 hits, walked one and has struck out eight. More importantly, however, is that they 28-year-old (last Monday) Osaka, Japan native pitched six full innings in each of his first two starts. These are the kind of number expected from your number two starter (or even your number one), not the kind of numbers Kazmir has put up through his first three starts.

And then there’s Alex Wood and Ross Stripling.

While it is understood that Stripling, who now has a grand total of 13.1 innings pitched in the major leagues, is basically untested at baseball’s highest level, what he has done in those 13.1 innings is the stuff that legends are made of. And while it is inevitable that he will struggle at some point this season, his 2.02 ERA thus far is the third best on the team behind Maeda’s 0.00 ERA and Kershaw’s 1.64 ERA. And even though Alex Wood had an excellent outing against the Dbacks last Wednesday, he owns a 1-1 record and 4.50 ERA with five walks and six strikeouts in his grand total of 12 innings pitched thus far this season. In other words, Wood is pitting up good numbers for a number four starter which, of course, is exactly where the Dodgers have him in their rotation.

Even though right-hander Ross Stripling has very little MLB experience, he has both the stuff and the makeup to be a number three starter - perhaps eventually a number two. (Photo credit - Ron Cervenka)

Even though right-hander Ross Stripling has very little MLB experience, he has both the stuff and the makeup to be a number three starter – perhaps eventually a number two.
(Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)

With a day off scheduled on Monday, this would be a great time for the Dodgers to move Maeda up into the number two spot (after Sunday’s game, of course) and drop Kazmir into the number three spot, and move Stripling into the number four spot and Wood to number five. And then on the Dodgers next off day on Monday, May 2 move Stripling up into the number three spot and drop Wood to the number four spot, with Kazmir moving to the number five spot in the Dodgers rotation.

It is understood that there may be some – perhaps many – who disagree with these changes and it is most certainly understood that the likelihood of any of this happening very remote – at least until we are deeper into the season. But unless Kazmir begins to actually pitch like a number two starter, he does not belong in that role.

 

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9 Responses to “Dodgers might want to re-think their rotation order”

  1. Kevin Bruce Kevin Bruce says:

    moving strippling up is a mistake. Let him build on his momentum Let kazmir throw more than 13 innings before you judge lol

  2. pauldodgerfan1965 says:

    I have felt this very same way and in no way, shape or form is Kashmir a # 2 SP. That is ludicrous and I do agree with your article here in total. And not getting those other FA’s not necessarily named Greinke WAS a mistake and guess what– signing Kashmir in the first place was a big mistake as well!

  3. OldBrooklynFan says:

    I don’t see what difference it makes what order they pitch in. Why mess with the rotation after nearly 15 games?

  4. SoCalBum says:

    Way too early to tinker with the rotation. Starting at the bottom and working up; not much difference between no. 4 and 5 slots, so leave Wood and Stripling in their current roles. There is no need to put more pressure on the rookie pitcher Stripling and let Wood demonstrate that he can consistently make quality pitches in his current role. I thought Kazmir pitched much better on Saturday, velocity was much better and Maeda is pitching very well following him. At some point in next 2 months, hopefully, a spot in the rotation will be needed for Ryu. That will be the time to adjust the rotation, barring injury(yes).

  5. HawkeyeDodger says:

    I would move Maeda up just to come back with a righty after Kershaw. Kazmir looks like meat after seeing Kershaw the day before. I would put them in the order suggested in the article not because of who is a 2 and who is a 4 but I just think the rotation would flow better going Kershaw, Maeda, Kazmir, Stripling, Wood. Then replace Wood with Ryu when he’s finally ready.

    • Ron Cervenka says:

      I’m good with this logic. Once The Dodgers settled on their number five (from among three right-handers) I thought for sure they would go with LRLRL. I still think that it will eventually get to this, BWTHDIKA?

  6. […] ThinkBlueLA takes a closer look on if the Dodgers should switch up the rotation […]

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