A look back at the Dodgers 2016 First-Year Player Draft

The results of the 2016 First Year Player Draft are in and MLB teams have been busy sorting out their new draftees, getting them acclimatized to professional baseball, tending to medical issues, assigning players to their new teams or promoting them already after an initial assignment.

However, the door for the 2016 draft is not yet quite closed. Dodger fans will remember that right-hander Zach Lee was signed at the last minute on August 16 following the 2010 draft. The signing deadline since then has since been moved up by a month to allow time for drafted players to get their feet wet and compete at the professional level following the draft. The current deadline is one minute before midnight on July 15. That’s one minute before midnight tonight.

The window of opportunity is winding down and the Dodgers still have some work to do if they are to sign all of the unsigned players they selected in June. That is an unrealistic expectation and is rarely – if ever – accomplished by a MLB team. However, I am sure they keep working at it until the very last minute. They have done quite well, having already signed 33 of their 42 picks which includes their first 11 selections.

Three draft selections – right-hand pitchers Cole Freeman (18), Bailey Ober (22) and Will Kincanon (29) – indicated very early on that they would definitely not be signing with the Dodgers. The work yet to be done includes attempts to sign right-handers Graham Ashcraft (12), Ryan Watson (39) and Zach Taglieri (40) as well as outfielder Cal Stevenson (36) and second baseman Dillon Persinger (17).

Graham Ashcroft was the Dodgers 12th-round draft pick and is the highest that has yet to sign. The 18-year-old Huntsville High School School right-hander has already committed to Mississippi State University and may be looking to improve his ranking for next year's draft. (Photo credit - Eric Schultz)

Graham Ashcroft was selected by the Dodgers in the 12th-round of the 2016 MLB First-Year Player Draft and remains their highest draft pick yet to sign. The 18-year-old Huntsville High School right-hander has already committed to Mississippi State University and may be looking to improve his ranking for next year’s draft. (Photo credit – Eric Schultz)

I expect most fans – Dodger fans – watched in anticipation as the recently signed players took up their positions as young professionals. The tendency might be to try to rate the success of the draft by comparing the Dodgers selections to the drafting rosters of the other 29 MLB teams or at what level the new crop of youngsters are placed.

After a period of time baseball outlets do come up with a grading system to rank the work completed by the drafting teams. For example, Bleacher report has given the Dodgers a “B” grade on their draft placing them in the middle of the pack. The Red Sox, Athletics and Brewers are generally considered to have had the best drafts, although not necessarily in that order.

It seems too early to issue grades regarding a particular draft and perhaps that may well be more accurate in two or three years’ time. It might be more useful just to refresh memories of those three days in June and reflect back on what went on as Dodgers Director of Amateur Scouting Billy Gasparino worked the front lines with his supporting team.

It is also generally accepted that this year’s draft did not include any sure-fire prospects – such as Clayton Kershaw or Corey Seager – but it was a stronger overall drafting class than the 2015 class. Because there were not those sure-fire prospects in the early rounds, it meant that drafting in the middle rounds became a key and that there most likely were “gold nuggets” to be found in those rounds. Those players will one day make solid contributions at the MLB level. Job number one was to find them.

The Dodgers – as do all teams – stress that they take the best player available regardless of his position, his signability, or his high school or college level. They most likely did that in 2015 in drafting Kyle Funkhouser knowing he would be difficult to sign.

Of their 42 picks, 23 selections in 2016 were pitchers with only two of them being left-handers. It surprised me that the drafted group included but two southpaws. That may well go back to drafting the “best player available” theme.

Of the 23 pitchers selected by the Dodgers, six have already had the almost commonplace Tommy John surgery: Jordan Sheffield (1), Mitchell White (2), James Carter (21), Bailey Ober (23), Conor Costello (32), Enrique Zamora (37). As mentioned, Ober has indicated he will not sign. Zamora has been released after his physical and also did not sign prior to the examination.

Gasparino claims that the Dodgers do not have a strategy of drafting Tommy John recipients but he does acknowledge the surgery has its attraction in drafting.

“I don’t know if it’s a set strategy. In today’s world it’s almost ‘who doesn’t have Tommy John?’” said Gasparino. “A lot of studies give a shelf life of the surgery of up to 10 years. When you (draft a pitcher who had the surgery one or two years ago), it does make you feel better. It’s not a strategy we were seeking out.”

The Dodgers did seem to have a strategy in drafting high school players, selecting shortstop Gavin Lux in the first round and pitcher Dustin May in the third round even though signability is often an issue with high school players. The risk is that the high school player, or college player, not signing in the first ten rounds means the drafting team has the bonus slot value for that drafting position subtracted from their total bonus pool. Senior college players provide the least financial risk in the first ten rounds.

The Dodgers selected seven high school players in the 2016 draft. Besides Lux and May they picked pitchers A.J. Alexy and Graham Ashcraft in the 11th and 12th rounds respectively. Part of the strategy was to save bonus pool money within the first 10 rounds in order to offer larger bonuses to players like Alexy and Ashcroft outside of the risk area for losing bonus pool money.

Gasparino said he would be happy to land one of the two, but would try to sign both.

“[Alexy’s and Ashcraft’s] talent level obviously fit much higher than the 11th and 12th round,” Gasparino said. “Any time you feel like you get that kind of talent level at that round you’re excited. These are two guys who have bright futures and upside. Knock on wood if we can get them signed. They’d be great adds to the organization.”

Alexy did sign for a $597,000 bonus which exceeded all of the bonuses offered by the Dodgers after the third round. A mystery of life is that ninth round selection Anthony Gonsolin and tenth round selection Kevin Lachance – signed for $2,500 each – thus conserving much-needed bonus pool money for the Dodgers. That is not a typo, it’s $2,500. Ashcraft remains unsigned.

The Dodgers also selected three high school pitchers with their last three picks – Kevin Malisheski (38), Ryan Watson (39) and Zach Taglieri (40). This is pretty much in take-a-chance land, although they were able to sign Malisheski.

Another noticeable trend for the Dodgers was to move away from just Division I colleges and seriously scour the landscape at junior colleges. In all, their search allowed them to select seven players from the smaller colleges including outfielder DJ Peters in the third round and left-handed pitcher Devin Smeltzer in the fifth round. The junior college contingent was filled out with outfielders Brayan Morales (15) and Cal Stevenson (36), second basemen Brandon Montgomery (26) and Dillon Persinger (17), and left-handed pitcher Will Kincanon (29).

DJ Peters’ coach at Western Nevada College – D.J. Whittemore – spoke of his signing and seemed to appreciate the recognition the Dodgers gave to Peters.

“That’s really special that he’s among the top 200 players in this country selected from any level,” said Whittemore. “He has that kind of talent, no doubt about that. [Junior College] players tend to be undervalued, and WNC players, in general, have been undervalued.”

Other than Corey Seager being selected by the Dodgers in 2012 in the first round, the Dodgers had not taken a position player with their first overall selection in 13 years. When they selected shortstop Gavin Lux in the first round this year he became the second position player selected first overall by the Dodgers in fourteen years. Interestingly enough, the Dodgers picked three other shortstops in this year’s draft: Errol Robinson (6), Kevin Lachance (10) and Zach McKinstry (33). That’s three shortstops in the first 10 rounds. Lachance has started the season on the 60-day DL.

Gasparino explained the Dodgers penchant for shortstops.

“The theory is that looking throughout the history of the draft and how athletes develop and age. When they’re athletic enough to play shortstop, it’s a pretty good recipe,” Gasparino said. “As they age and get older and their skills develop and their bodies go forward or backwards they can usually play other positions. So many players today who are left fielders or right fielders, third basemen, second basemen, started out as shortstops. If you can start there, it’s a lot easier to transition to other places on the field, and gives you more avenues of versatility that way.”

To date four of the 2016 drafting class have made their way to the Class-A Great Lakes Loons of the Midwest League. After a short stint with the Ogden Raptors of the rookie level Pioneer League, outfielders Luke Raley, Darien Tubbs and Saige Jenco all played together for the first time in the Loons outfield on Wednesday, July 13. They were joined by catcher Will Smith, who was selected by the Dodgers with their supplemental first round selection.

The rosters are still in a state of flux with some players selected in the 2016 First Year Player Draft not yet assigned to a Dodger minor league affiliate team. A recent search found 14 of the 2016 draftees with the Arizona League Dodgers and seven with the Ogden Raptors, along with the aforementioned four with the Loons. One unanswered question is, “Where is Jordan Sheffield?” Selected by the Dodgers with the 36th overall pick, he has not yet surfaced.

Certainly at first glance the strength of the Dodgers 2016 draft would seem to be with the outfield corps now playing with the Ogden Raptors and Great Lakes Loons. It is a bit too soon to pass judgement on the young pitching contingent. However, teenagers Dustin May and A.J. Alexy have started their professional careers well with the AZL Dodgers, as has 21-year old Mitchell White.

Thus far there has not been much talk about “sleepers” in the June draft – at least with the Dodgers selections. One has to wonder if 13th-round selection Cody Thomas might be that “sleeper” pick and in due course exceed any and all expectations that were set for him going into the draft.

With only hours left in the 2016 signing period, a safe bet would be that the Dodgers are on an all-out push to sign 18-year old right-hander Graham Ashcraft. To do so would be a coup and immediately improve the Dodgers 2016 draft grade.

The Dodgers are still on the clock.

 

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18 Responses to “A look back at the Dodgers 2016 First-Year Player Draft”

  1. Ron Cervenka says:

    This is, hands down, the most comprehensive re-cap of the Dodgers 2016 draft I have found anywhere. I am amazed that none of the “big boys” so much as even mentioned tonight’s signing deadline. Great work, Harold.

    What impresses me most about the draft class of 2016 are the number of draftees that are already producing, especially the position players. This certainly speaks well of Gasparino and his staff.

    Thanks again, Harold.

  2. Ron Cervenka says:

    BREAKING NEWS:

    The Dodgers have promoted second-round draft pick RHP Mitchell White to Low Single-A Great Lakes.

  3. Bluenose Dodger says:

    Several pitchers have not yet been assigned from the 2016 draft: Jordan Sheffield (1), Chris Mathewson (19), Chandler Eden (25), Jake Perkins (28), Kevin Malisheski (38). All are right-handers.

    Depending on the reason for Sheffield not yet pitching – if not injury – one would not expect him to begin his pro career with the AZL Dodgers. I expect it is conserving innings. He threw 101 with Vanderbilt in 2016.

    Someone has to take Mitchell White’s place. On to the Loons WOW!. My choice with the Loons to move up is Abdullah Imani if he was not on an innings limit. The obvious choice would be lefty Michael Boyle who leads the Loons in IP with 88.2. Has a 2.75 ERA.

  4. Bluenose Dodger says:

    Signing Ashcraft most likely won’t happen and not because of lack of effort. I expect they have exceeded their bonus pool money fairly close to the limit. They will not go over it and lose a first round pick in 2017.

    Also the bonus for 38-round pick 18-year-old Kevin Malisheski was $248,500. That would seem to indicate they might have had to give up on Ashcraft and pursue one of their last three high school picks – but you just never know.

    • Ron Cervenka says:

      Offering $2,500 for a 12th-rounder is a bit of a slap in the face, so I suspect the Dodgers knew Ashcraft wasn’t going to sign in-lieu of going to MSU instead.

      It’s a bit of a gamble on Ashcraft’s part (i.e. struggles or injuries – see Kyle Funkhouser), but you certainly can’t blame the kid for wanting a full-ride scholarship to a D-1 school with a potential future million-dollar signing pool.

      • Bluenose Dodger says:

        I don’t think that was his offer. They felt he would have gone much earlier in the draft if he was a sure sign. A.J. Alexy – 11th-round – received $597,500. Kevin Malisheski – 38th-round – received $248,500. Ashcraft would have been offered a substantial amount but not enough to sway his baseball career or education decisions.

  5. Mark_Timmons says:

    Excellent information. You spent a lot of time on this Harold. Great job.

    • Bluenose Dodger says:

      Thanks Mark. It took a bit of time but certainly helped me get familiar with the 2016 class.

  6. Boxout7 says:

    Yes, excellent write up. Thanks!

    I didn’t see anything, do you know, did the Dodgers get anyone signed yesterday?

    • Bluenose Dodger says:

      Ken Gurnick reported these as late signings although the three had previously agreed to sign: “Right-handers Chris Mathewson of Long Beach State (19th round, Conor Costello of Oklahoma State (32nd round) and Kevin Malisheski from Wauconda (Ill.) High School (38th round) were the late signings.”

      He also reported that The Dodgers had signed their first 13 selections so that would include Graham Ashcraft. I am unable to confirm that one way or the other. Maybe Ron or Mark can inquire from their sources.

      Those mentioned above that were not signed did not sign with Ken Gurnick’s comment re:first 13 including Ashcraft unsubstantiated.

  7. SoCalBum says:

    May I add my KUDOS and thanks for the in-depth article — terrific read and information. And SPOT ON about the Dodgers draft grade not being relevant for next couple of years. Overall, the 2015 and 2016 drafts look outstanding.

  8. Ron Cervenka says:

    Here’s the deal and discrepancy – scroll down to UPDATE (July 15):

    Dodgers reportedly sign Chris Mathewson, Zach McKinstry

    • Bluenose Dodger says:

      Those guys were included as having agreed to sign but had not been announced by the Dodgers.

      The issue was with Ken Gurnick’s statement that the first 13 picks were signed. That would include Ashcraft and he obviously hasn’t signed. Also Gurnick announced that the Dodgers were over $11,000,000 in signing bonuses which would have cost two draft picks in 2017. That is not correct either.

      “The work yet to be done includes attempts to sign right-handers Graham Ashcraft (12), Ryan Watson (39) and Zach Taglieri (40) as well as outfielder Cal Stevenson (36) and second baseman Dillon Persinger (17).” These were the only non-signees left to pursue and didn’t sign.

      • AlwaysCompete says:

        Harold, I may be late, but I too wanted to add my kudos to this article. I follow the minor league players pretty close, but nowhere close to the information that you provide. It helps me to learn more about the newbies and makes following the kids much easier. Thank you!!

  9. Bluenose Dodger says:

    Thank you guys for the kind words. They are much appreciated. Until the past few months Ron and I were about the only posters on TBLA that really follow the minor league affiliates.

    It is more than rewarding to now have a significant group of posters who not only follow the minor league teams but are very knowledgeable, and some of you – besides Ron – have first hand experience at the ball park.

    • Ron Cervenka says:

      As you well know, Harold, my “hands on” is limited to Rancho for geographical reasons and Tulsa via direct contact with a couple of players. I also have a couple kids at Ogden that I interact with from time to time, but have nowhere near the aptitude that you have with the MiLB.

      Keep up the good work!

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