December 7th, 2019 at 8:00 am 
by 0799291000348 When the 2019 Major League Baseball Winter Meetings begin Sunday, December 8, in San Diego California, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and his staff will be there in full-force, as they continue their efforts to improve the roster for 2020.
Even though the 2019 team won 106 games and its seventh consecutive National League West title, there are roster holes to be filled and improvement needed in the bullpen. As a reminder, here are several key points from our October review of the Dodgers 2019 bullpen performance:
- Ranked 24th out of 30-teams in leaving runners on base;
- Tied for fourth in most blown saves with Cubs and Red Sox (28);
- Successful in only 60% of save opportunities (19th);
- 16th in holds; and,
- 29th (tied with Orioles) in percent of inherited runners they allowed to scored (38%).
Closer Kenley Jansen (8-blown-saves); setup man Joe Kelly (only 8-holds, 1-save, 5-blown-saves ); Pedro Baez (25-holds in 71-games, 1-save, 6-blown-saves); Dylan Floro (4-holds in 50 games, no saves, 3-blown-saves); and Caleb Ferguson (4-holds in 44 games). Left-handed reliever Scott Alexander was injured (left forearm, and thumb numbness on pitching hand) pitching ineffectively in his 17-innings.
(Photo credit – John McCoy)
While the debate amongst fans and analysts tends to focus on which reliever(s) should be acquired to bolster the bullpen, the present group of relievers can be improved without one free-agent signing or trade acquisition.
The most obvious fix is for Kenley Jansen, Joe Kelly, Caleb Ferguson, Dylan Floro, and Scott Alexander to remain healthy and pitch as effectively as they have in the past. This is a talented group and it is reasonable to expect better performances in 2020. But there is another way to help the bullpen achieve better performance in the upcoming season – have a starting rotation that regularly pitches six, or more, innings in each start.
(Video capture courtesy of SportsNet LA)
During the 2019 season, only Clayton Kershaw, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Walker Buehler could be counted upon to pitch into the seventh inning in each of their average starts. And as all Dodgers fans know, Ryu is currently a free agent, leaving only Kenta Maeda (who averaged just over five innings per start) and Ross Stripling (who averaged less than five innings in his starts) as the other veteran starter options for 2020. Not including their three bullpen starts in 2019 (Casey Sadler one start and Caleb Ferguson two starts), the other Dodgers starters averaged less than five innings pitched in 75-starts. At least one reliever entering the game in the fifth inning which, over the course of a 162-game schedule, takes a significant toll on any bullpen.
(Photo credit – Jon SooHoo)
As much as the Dodgers value pitching prospects Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May and Julio Urias, none have averaged six innings per start in their professional careers. Additionally, Urias has never pitched more than 87-innings in any professional season, Gonsolin’s max was 128-innings in 2018, and May reached 141-innings in 2019. Expecting any of these young men to replace Ryu’s 183-innings and six-plus innings per start is unrealistic. As such, it is likely that the Dodgers are looking to add two veteran starting pitchers to the roster before spring training 2020 who have demonstrated the ability to consistently pitch deep into games.
But adding more starting pitching is only part of the solution to help fix the bullpen. The other issue – and this is significant – is how Dave Roberts uses the pitching staff. All too often we see Roberts replace a starting pitcher, or a reliever, who has been effective to that point in a game, seemingly relying on an arbitrary pitch-count or a statistical matchup (or an unseen computer algorithm) rather than his baseball acumen. Watching a pitchers’ body language when being replaced and then later their actions in the dugout is a pretty good indicator that they disagree with Roberts’ quick-hook.
No doubt that there is a place in the game for statical decision making, but there is also value in having an experienced baseball person knowing when and when not to make changes. In this fan’s opinion, Roberts needs to improve in this area or perhaps be allowed by the front office to deviate from the statistical probabilities (i.e., analytics) when his baseball knowledge tells him that a pitcher should finish an inning or go another inning.
The Dodgers have the wherewithal to add additional relievers, but there are ways to improve on what the team currently has in the bullpen. But this requires an objective evaluation of the current paradigm … and a willingness to change.
As an executive would often tell his subordinate managers when faced with a problem: “FIX IT!”
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I agree whole heartedly! Let them get out of situations more often. Too often guys are being pulled w… https://t.co/tct7CAW7cJ
Boy, with numbers like the 2019 bullpen had it’s rather amazing we won 106 games. With a great bullpen we could have won 120+ and a championship in 2019.
So let’s fix the bullpen!
With rosters expanding to 26 in 2020, we should have 13 pitchers on the roster. We currently have a total of 20 pitchers on the 40 man roster. The only locks to be on the 26 man roster seems to be:
Buehler
Kershaw
Urias
Maeda
May
Stripling
Gonsolin
Baez
Jansen
Kelly
The rest of the 40 man roster pitchers are:
Sborz
Kolarek
Sadler
Chargois
Alexander
Ferguson
Floro
White
Gonzalez
Santana
With Maeda needing to be traded since he insists on starting, and being a valuable trade chip, there is going to be 4 open slots on 26 man roster. Lots of opportunity to improve.
What to do?
I don’t think the Dodgers can continue to have Maeda as a starting pitcher and will be traded. Right now, I think Kolarek and Alexander (if healthy) will be in the bullpen, but the others will be competing for a spot. Whether it is Ken Giles of the Blue Jays, or another veteran, late inning pitcher, I am confident that the Dodgers will acquire a pitcher with that experience.
Agreed, Maeda is probably going to be traded.
If Maeda is traded that leaves us with only 6 starters, not enough in Friedman’s world. While the remaining six have the potential to be very very good we need at least one STUD innings eater. I don’t think Friedman will pull the trigger on either Cole or Strasburg. Good chance of getting lefty Ryu back on a 2-3 year contract.
Yeah, we need some lefty relievers, Kolarek and Alexander are the obvious choices right now, but an upgrade is also a possibility and Urias might also get pushed to the pen. If Urias goes to the pen could be only one of Kolarek or Alexander makes it. If that happens we have two more spots to fill.
Giles would be very nice. Colome is possible in a trade for Pederson, although I’m not sure I’d do that, but salaries match and both have one year control remaining. I’d rather see Dodgers add something to Pederson and get Bummer from the Sox. I also like Blake Treinen who only costs money and probably can be had on a relatively cheap incentive laden contract. That’s three potential guys to fill the two spots.
Of course, the elephant in the room as Uncle Ned points out is Kenley Jansen. What do we have in Jansen??? He epitomizes the danger of big contracts, EVERYBODY wanted the Dodgers to resign him, but now we got two more years of him. Happily, it’s only $38M if he is done. I am hopeful he can bounce back in 2020, did his heart surgery last year effect him? He was inconsistent, at times looking like his old self, but often not good. In any event, his presence means we will continue to have a big question mark in the bullpen.
I am not convinced that Dave Roberts manages based on statistics. Bringing Clayton Kershaw in as a reliever in the 5th game of the play-offs, when he has a demonstrated problem of giving up many of the runs he gives up in the 1st inning he pitches, probably was statistically based. That said, winning 106 games is quite an achievement!
My thoughts; dont trade away young players for rentals, a vet over 26 y/o, or a stretch player. The true dodgers developed players in the minors and sold high on aging players at 30-31 y/o. Cold facts, Jensen could be packaged with another vet and a single A player to move cap space. Think of it this way. Jensen and Pollack and a single a are? About 40m in cap, plus a younger player, Lindor ss clev. Barns and Turner and a single A player gives you maybe another rp or a AAA player? Not to mention almost 20m of cap. R.Fingers for the A’s was a starter but moved to the pen and it added legs to his career. Clayton could be our Fingers. We have good young backstops. We have growing young out fielders with pop and speed. Seager is a 3b from the minors its an easy move. Lindor to short, lux to 2b and Hernandez’s moves to 1b. Winter league him now. The whole is starting pitching and mid relief. Fa, one top tier starter and one mid relief. You could also move Seager in order to get an arm and sign a fa 3b.
I hear ya; The Branch Rickey model, “better to trade a player a year too early than a year to late.” The problem with that model now is that every MLB team has the same plan. In order to trade Jansen, and / or Pollock the Dodgers will either pay a significant amount of their remaining contracts, take back similar bad contracts, or package them with high quality prospects. Problem with signing free agents like Rendon, Cole, Strasburg, and Donaldson — Rendon is the youngest at age 29, so they don’t fit the model of trading veterans
Agree with keeping young players instead of obtaining rentals.
Not sure that 22 is capable of relief pitching given his problems with first inning in general.
.Takes him a while to find his control and can he rely on slider as a strikeout pitch that a reliever needs?
The problem with the 2019 Dodgers bullpen unquestionably, was the crumbling of Kenley Jansen. A shell of his former self, he tried to BS his way throughout the season. Early on after blown saves, “I’m not worried” and a transparent macho pose was his response. He never looked confident at all during the season regardless of his mighty efforts to maintain some kind of cool swagger. No wonder. He was hit hard in most of his successful appearances as well as his implosions.
I feel like Jansen is finished as a reliably effective reliever. You can’t fault the Dodgers for assigning KJ so much responsibility in 2019. But they’d be foolish if they do so again.
You are so spot on! Kenley was trying, struggling to get through his mental blocks but much of it was, like you said, BS! They need to be willing to let him know he has no lock on the closer role and bring someone in to provide some competition for it.
Got to after Hader and Rendon and maybe Cole, those guys would make an immediate mpact.
I believe the Dodgers are serious about signing Rendon, willing to pay a very high AAV over shorter contract period. And I think they will inquire about Hader, but my guess is that the Brewers will demand even more from the Dodgers than American League teams so they will not have to face him in the regular season, or post season until the WS
Roberts = Micromanagement
Surprising for a career player who hustled and overachieved
His players deserve the same treatment that he experienced from his managers; let them perform to their highest potential, not categorized as platoon or situational players
One last thing: Kershaw is not Koufax. He doesn’t belong in there when others are available but Roberts doesn’t trust them to perform
Roberts = Micromanagement
Surprising for a career player who hustled and overachieved
His players deserve the same treatment that he experienced from his managers; let them perform to their highest potential, not categorized as platoon or situational players
One last thing: Kershaw is not Koufax. He doesn’t belong in there when others are available. Trust your players
We do not have to subtract from our bullpen yet we have to add to it. A name to keep an eye out for is Dennis Santana who was moved to the bullpen late in the AAA season and succeeded in doing so. This whole offseasons. He has put in the time and work and it’s showing in his physique. Dodgers 2020 here we come.
I think Santana will be traded
Wasn’t Santana the guy who walked out in the middle of a game this year?
Yes
Dodgers have enough talent on their current roster and prospects to win a WS.
Time to abandon quick fixes like free agent signings like Hill and Kazmir who pitched very few innings as a Dodger.
Experienced managers would have won the past 2 WS with Dodgers’ 2018 and 2019 rosters.
Trust the scouts and players who have proven their abilities in the past 3-5 years.
As a Brooklyn and LA Dodgers fan since 1955, this is how the Dodgers have won.
All of the current analytics have their place but have not delivered a WS win for the Dodgers.
I don’t argue that analytics has changed the game but Roberts is stuck with it until the front office changes its thinking. Analytics is nothing different than playing the percentages but taken to a new level.Your option is going with the ‘hot’ players and that is no sure thing. Both Pollock and Seager were coming off a relatively good September (.276 and .291 respectively)and even Bellinger hit .280 for the month. the best month he had since May.
I don’t see how you fix this problem by bringing in a new position player. The Pen was 24 out of 30 in blown saves so that might be fixed with new arms in the pen.
You can’t blame Roberts for Bellinger, Seager and Pollock being virtual no shows in the post season. You can blame him for using Kershaw but Robert’s obviously lacked trust in his relievers. It is hard to ignore that after LA jumped out to a quick lead in the first two innings their bats just went silent. As I’ve said all too often -‘if you don’t score, eventually the other team will’.