Jansen’s return to Dodgers becoming less likely

When news broke late Wednesday night that World Series champion closer Aroldis Chapman had agreed to a a five-year/$86 million contract with the New York Yankees, it sent the Twittersphere into a frenzy – both good and bad.

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But even though the controversial flame-throwing left-hander is now guaranteed a record-setting average annual value (AAV) of $17.2 million, it also created an immediate and potentially crushing blow to the Dodgers.

How so, you ask?

With the third most sought-after closer Mark Melancon signing with the San Francisco Giants on Monday to the tune of $62 million over four years (for an AAV of $15.5 million) and now with Chapman’s five-year/$86 million deal with the Yankees, Jansen – the guy who many are calling the most sought-after free agent closer on the market – will, in all likelihood, meet or exceed Chapman’s $17.2 AAV, whether it be for four or (more likely) five years.

While most of us slept on Wednesday night, it was being reported that Jansen was being heavily courted by the Miami Marlins for a rumored five-year deal in the $80 million range. And while a five-year/$80 million deal would only guarantee Jansen an AAV of $16 million, the rumor included a “more than” caveat, meaning that it could match or even exceed the Chapman deal.

What all of this means is that Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and general manager Farhan Zaidi will more than likely walk away from any deal above and beyond the Marlins rumored deal and could cause them to focus (or refocus) on their efforts to re-sign Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner. And even though F&Z have expressed their reluctance to offer the popular 32-year-old Long Beach, California native a five year deal that would take him into his age 37 year, Friedman made it known to reporters on Wednesday afternoon that anything is possible, and did so in a rather unique Andrew Friedman-kind of way.

“The free-agent market almost always plays out to the point of doing more than you rationally want to do,” Friedman told reporters. “If you’re always rational about free agents, you will finish third on every free agent.”

If ever there were a time for the Dodgers to be irrational, this would be it.
(Photo credit – TBS and Ron Cervenka)

Although Friedman and Zaidi have – for the most part – been very rational during their two seasons at the helm of the Dodgers front office, they have hinted (albeit not overtly) that if they are unable to re-sign both Jansen and Turner, they will probably re-sign one or the other. As such and despite the anguish at the mere thought of losing out on Jansen (especially to former Dodgers manager Don Mattingly), this bodes well for Justin Turner fans – and there are many – who are hoping (and praying) that he returns to the Dodgers.

Then again, this is “rational” thinking and might very well be thrown out the window if Friedman and Zaidi do indeed re-sign both Turner and Jansen.

Sometimes being irrational can be a good thing,

 

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6 Responses to “Jansen’s return to Dodgers becoming less likely”

  1. Elliot Elliot says:

    Lets be irrational . We need both of them !

    • pauldodgerfan1965 says:

      It appears that Turner, if anybody would be re-signed, because I now have checked in on other Dodger blogs that all suggest Jansen will sign elsewhere.

  2. Respect the Rivalry says:

    Consider Mattingly’s record:
    In 6 years, ending with their ’81 WS loss to the Dodgers, the Yankees won 4 pennants and 2 WS.
    ’82 Mattingly begins 14 years with the Yankees. They never got to the WS. In ’94 they had the best record in the AL but…. well, we all know that sad story.
    After he retired they went to 5 of the next 6 WS, winning 4 of them.
    He became the Yankees batting coach in ’04, in time for a front row seat to the great collapse, leading the ALCS 3-0, then watching the Red Sox win the first half of 8 straight games. 3 more years coaching the Yankees, lost the ALDS each time.
    I was surprised when I read all that, had to look it up.
    We all know his record with the Dodgers.

    • pauldodgerfan1965 says:

      Hello RTR, consider that this current situation with this payroll and FO not wanting to go that high in $$ for Jansen and others was somewhat a result in their complete incompetence and waste in spending beginning with McCarthy and Ballet Bret before the 2015 season. If they don’t sign Kenley or JT they will have to go the trade route and every team knows the Dodgers big need for 2B, 3B and closer, and a need to address hitting against LHP. Those team will now insist on Bellinger and the other top prospects, even Urias for any impact deal that would help this team. I am soooo not looking forward to 2017, at least at this current time.

      • Respect the Rivalry says:

        I don’t think they will go the trade route, at least not in a big way.
        I’m convinced they’ll have JT back.
        Kenley isn’t gone yet, though it sure doesn’t look good. I’m sure there’s an offer on the table from the Dodgers, but you know Friedman doesn’t announce such things.
        Either way I think they’ll try replacing from within.
        Bellinger isn’t going anywhere except Camelback Ranch, then Okie City, then Los Angeles in September, or before.
        The Winter Meetings are just one step in the process. It’s still 2.5 months ’til ST.

  3. oldbrooklynfan says:

    It doesn’t look good.

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