With Kershaw out, is a trade necessary?

On Sunday, July 24th, every Dodger fan’s worst nightmare came true – Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw was removed in the second innings of his start with an apparent back injury. The next day it was announced that he could miss as much as four to six weeks, although an exact timetable is still uncertain. The same morning – even before Kershaw’s injury – it was rumored that the Dodgers were ‘strongly’ considering a trade for Rangers’ ace Yu Darvish. Darvish is currently in the final year of his six-year / $56 million contract and has been stellar this season, and would make a large contribution to whatever team he plays for. It was also rumored that the Rangers were merely considering trading Darvish but had not made any firm commitments to anyone. However, after the news broke that Kershaw was hurt and would miss an extended period of time, the Dodgers’ hands may have been forced to make a trade for a notable front-of-the-rotation starter – such as the 30-year-old Habikino, Japan native.

Losing Kershaw for an extended period time for a second consecutive season has once again put pressure on the Dodgers front office to seek a replacement – even if only temporary – prior to next week’s non-waiver trade deadline. (Photo credit – Juan Ocampo)

This season has been nothing short of incredible for the Dodgers as they are firmly in first place in the NL West with legitimate hopes of making it to, if not winning, a World Series. But, regardless of standing, it is a huge blow for the team to lose Kershaw and filling his shoes is nearly impossible. But while “replacing” Kershaw is not doable, there are starters available at the deadline that would pitch as the ace of the staff during Kershaw’s absence and a move for a player of that caliber seems imminent following the devastating news on Sunday. Some examples are Yu Darvish, Sonny Gray, and Justin Verlander. So, the argument is this: With Kershaw out, the Dodgers must make a move for a big-name pitcher.

This may seem unreasonable, which is understandable for those who think that keeping the team and farm the way they are would be more beneficial than acquiring someone who would be quite costly. But, that is no longer the case. With Kershaw gone there is a clear space in the starting five that needs to be filled by someone capable of leading a rotation and more or less give the team a stress-free game every fifth day. And, for those who think Alex Wood is that guy, he is not. Alex Wood has been nothing short of incredible this year and there is no plan to say anything to negate that. But, Wood’s incredible season does not instantly make him an ace. Sure, it does qualify him to be a number one starter this year but there is a clear difference between “number one starter” and “ace”. Take the Royals for example. They are a team with poor to decent starting pitching and only have one person on the entire team who has been good this year as a starter, Jason Vargas. But Vargas is in no way an ace-caliber starter on any team even though he’s been impressive to this point in the year. The term ace is coined and owned by a team’s superstar pitcher and Wood is just not that even though he’s been incredible. So, for that reason, the team should take a hard look at the available aces on the market to try and get someone in the rotation that can actually fill that ace void.

But here is the hard part. When a team is more or less forced into making a move, the asking price instantly becomes higher. It is like owning a gas station in the middle of nowhere. If you own that gas station and the next place to get gas isn’t for another 50 miles, you can up the prices almost as high as you want because when someone drives by and desperately needs gas, they have no choice but to buy it from you. The Dodgers are the car running low on gas and other teams are the gas station. At the moment, Kershaw is about a month away from even thinking about coming back and now the Dodgers are left with a pretty sizable hole in the rotation. And with Brandon McCarthy out for an undisclosed amount of time, the remaining options are Brock Stewart and minor league arms. So, while the desperation may not be severe enough affect the team’s current standing, it is desperate enough to require filling a hole in the rotation for the remainder of the regular season and certainly enough to require an arm necessary for the postseason.

Now to actually break down the asking price. There is no denying that it will be huge. The Rangers will want the kitchen sink for a pitcher of Darvish’s caliber and they rightfully can ask for it. The A’s will want a boatload of prospects for the rebuild that never seems to end in Oakland and Detroit has publicly said they are going to be steep in their asking price for Verlander. But, it is a price the Dodgers must pay? The farm system is absolutely stacked right now and trading away some top prospects may not hurt as bad as some people think. Among the rumored prospects that could be involved in a trade are: Yadier Alvarez, Alex Verdugo, Willie Calhoun (although I personally doubt he will be traded), Trevor Oaks and others. And while they are all great players, there is a way to argue that they are tradable. The Dodgers are basically set for the next few years in the outfield department with Puig, Pederson, and a healthy Andrew Toles being more than capable of holding down the fort. For that reason, it is definitely feasible that the front office could send Verdugo in a trade. On the flip side of that argument, some will say that the team should hold on to Verdugo and trade Pederson who is obviously a more MLB ready player that can contribute now. And, for a team like the Rangers that may be an option worth exploring as they are in desperate need of a center fielder and Pederson would do just that.

It is pretty much a given that any team willing to part with a frontline starter will insist that Dodgers include top prospect Alex Verdugo in any trade deal. What isn’t a given is the Dodgers willingness to part with their 21-year-old star outfielder. (Photo credit – Jeremy Davis)

So the claim here is this: The Dodgers have been incredible this year and are still lead the division by a wide margin. However, with Kershaw out for the near future, it may be time for the front office to go after someone who can fill the ace role for in his absence. And even though this front office is notoriously stingy with their top prospects, it may be time to break ties with a few of them to bring in a quality arm.

 

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11 Responses to “With Kershaw out, is a trade necessary?”

  1. SoCalBum says:

    I think Dodgers will acquire another SP and a LH BP guy, but it will not overspend in terms of prospects to get either pitcher and most certainly will not trade a couple of top prospects for a rental (Darvish).

    • Bluenose Dodger says:

      I agree.

      Verlander is not a good option in my opinion. He is 34 now with a couple of years left ion a contract. His huge contract may well mean he doesn’t cost near as much is prospects but is a huge impediment to acquiring a guy on the way down.

      If prospects are to be traded, and that is one purpose for having them, then acquire a player who is young and not on the downhill side of things.

      Tampa and Oakland always seem to be Dodger targets for trade. Maybe Toronto is now as the Jays have to rebuild their farm system. Go big -go Stroman.

    • Ron Cervenka says:

      Did you happen to watch the game on Monday night? I believe that they have their LH BP guy now in Paredes. That said, I am not convinced that Grant Dayton is 100% healthy, so they may, in fact, still need one.

      • Lobicho says:

        He was hit hard 2 times directly at Bellinger and Turner… I think Briton would be a great acquisition you have control for a few years, and if healty he could be last year Miller

        • Ron Cervenka says:

          The guy threw a grand total of 11 pitches in his major league debut, of which seven were strikes (I’m thinking he may have been a little nervous).

          I think it might be a bit premature to throw the towel in on him after only 11 MLB pitches.

          • Respect the Rivalry says:

            Heck, I was nervous in my Little League debut! “What if he hits it to me? What if I totally mess it up?” He did and I did.
            I also thought he looked good. Can’t throw in the towel on a guy whose MLB line is all 1’s (in the good places) and 0’s (in the bad places).
            He’s only 58 innings short of Orel’s streak.

          • Lobicho says:

            Sorry if it sounded as throwing the towel on the guy… I hope he sticks in the majors and does great… but I think this is a good year to look for the World Series…and if Briton comes near to what he did last year… I think it could be the cherry on top… it will cost yes… Like Miller did… but having Briton and Jensen on the back of the bullpen…with what Morrow, Baez, Fields, Stripling, Avilan… would be like the cherry on top

  2. CruzinBlue says:

    This time of the year always leaves me hopeful the Dodgers choose wisely without giving away the farm, yet still get the maximum in return for what they spend.

    Paredes looked solid. Bellinger’s a freaking alien!

  3. oldbrooklynfan says:

    I think the Dodgers should just wait and see how truly bad Keshaw is hurt and how long he will be out. With the present 11 1/2 game lead, it looks to me they have plenty of time to think this thing out.

  4. Bluenose Dodger says:

    Darvish gave up 10 earned runs in 3.2 innings last night. His price just went down. Not because of a disastrous outing but perhaps symptoms of a health issue. Seven earned on July 4 and five on June 18.

    Beltre four hits away from 3,000. Huh!

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