Sometimes when a vague statement like that is made, there is an ulterior motive behind it. This time it may be to get a headstrong player like 32-year-old Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen to opt-out of his 5-year / $80 million contract and simply move on to free agency. Jansen believes himself to be an elite closer. Perhaps he should attempt to find a better contract elsewhere.

Truth is, it is highly unlikely that will happen. Not because Jansen doesn’t want to, but because it would be difficult to find a taker willing to pay him a more lucrative salary than what the Dodgers are committed to if he stays. ($38 million for the next two seasons). Could there possibly be a team out there that would offer him more years at a lesser salary? Would you accept an offer like that if you were guaranteed $38 million for the next two seasons?

Perhaps Friedman’s comments are an attempt to anger Jansen and motivate him to up his game. We all know that relief pitchers, even the greatest of them all, have their sub-par seasons. Look at Hall of Famers Trevor Hoffman and Lee Smith. They tanked a few years. Jansen does possess the most saves in Dodger history, and there was a time he was the most dominant closer in the league. What remains to be seen is if he can regain that dominance at age 32.

The biggest problem that I see with Jansen is his mental side of the game.  This is a pitcher that is a headcase. And to make matters worse, he’s a stubborn headcase. He fields his position poorly and he can’t hold runners on. Honestly, how effective is that floppy lob he makes to first base? It can’t seriously be called a pickoff move. If a player reaches first on a walk or a single, it’s as good as a double. This leads me to the next flaw in his game:  Jansen’s paranoia about runners on second stealing his signs.

Now any Major League pitcher worth his salt knows how to outthink the opponent and simply change signs. This is simple game prep, long before a pitcher takes the mound. Never have I seen a pitcher get so rattled about sign stealing. We are talking about the Majors, not Single-A ball. Any professional considered to be an elite closer must figure out a way to be on the same page with his catcher and change signs. The tactic to intentionally balk a runner over to third, which Jansen has done several times, is as stupid of a move ever used in the game. Now a wild pitch or passed ball and that run scores.

Then there are the clashes with catchers/coaches/scouts who have advised him to change the way he approaches hitters. He’s stubborn, insisting on throwing that cutter when they are flat and aren’t cutting. There is no Dodger pitcher that shakes off his catcher more than Jansen. He developed a sinker that proved to be effective, but instead of mixing it regularly into his repertoire of pitches, Jansen goes back to the lackluster cutter over and over again, and he regularly gets pounded.

There was a time that Jansen was able to conceal the flaws in fielding his position and holding runners on because his stuff was dominant. Those days are now history and the weaknesses are therefore exposed.

Jansen’s WAR is decreasing each year as his salary rises to astronomical levels. Earning $19.33 million in 2019, his WAR was a so-so 0.2. Compare that to three years ago when his WAR was at 2.9. There is no fear factor that the opposition has when Jansen takes the mound now. You can see it in their faces. Batters look like wolves prepping to dig into a lamb chop. He’s a Fernando Rodney comparison now, not even close to the player that they used to compare him to (because of his cutter) – Mariano Rivera.

The Dodgers essentially entered this season’s postseason play without a closer; at least that’s how they treated the playoffs. Roberts justifiably lacked confidence in Jansen, and that’s why Joe Kelly was out there to begin the 10th inning of game 5 of the NLDS. Jansen had earned that mistrust with his inconsistent subpar performances all season. (Note: Please don’t misconstrue this comment to mean that I agreed with Roberts about sending Kelly back out for the 10th. He had other [better] options, which is another topic for another day).

Jansen’s eight blown saves were second-most in all of baseball in 2019; some in unspectacular walk-off home run fashion. In the past two years, Jansen has served up 22 homers over 134 innings of work, resulting in a 1.45 HR per 9IP stat that is amongst the worst of all baseball for closers. It should be noted that those stats do not reflect his failures in postseason play. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is regressing dramatically. Where it was at historically high levels three seasons ago at 15.57, it is now down to 5.0.  Jansen has had difficulty putting away hitters as he has aged. This is a normal regression, but still, something to be concerned about.

So, if not Jansen, who gets the ninth? 

This is a good question. But with a number of young arms earning the MLB minimum salary, it isn’t like the Dodgers don’t have favorable options.  Developing a productive closer is no easy task. The Dodgers certainly have candidates amongst the young core of talent on their roster: Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, Caleb Ferguson, and Julio Urias. Even deeper, if you dig into the minors and look at some of their other bullpen pieces.

So what will Jansen’s role be if he stays, with the uncertainty and lack of trust he has earned? As Andrew Friedman so eloquently put it at his recent end-of-season presser: “I don’t know right now.”

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