Quality is in the Eye of the Beholder

“In baseball, a quality start is a statistic for a starting pitcher defined as a game in which the pitcher completes at least six innings and permits no more than three earned runs. The quality start was developed by sportswriter John Lowe in 1985 while writing for the Philadelphia Inquirer.”  – Wikipedia

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If you were to ask Dodgers Hall of Fame left-hander Sandy Koufax or had asked Dodgers Hall of Fame right-hander Don Drysdale – both of whom were out of the game long before John Lowe invented (for lack of a better term) this ambiguous pitching statistic – what their definition of a quality start was, they both would have said that a quality start was pitching a complete game and winning. Anything less than that for arguably the best lefty/righty pitching duo the game has ever seen would not be a quality start for either – period.

Speaking of complete games, the MLB record for complete games belongs to (wait for it…) Cy Young, who had 749 complete games over his 22-year MLB career. That’s SEVEN HUNDRED AND FORTY-NINE!

To put this into perspective, Dodgers Hall of Fame right-hander Don Sutton had 178 complete games in his remarkable 23-year MLB career (156 as a Dodger), Drysdale with 167 in his 14-year career, left-hander Claude Osteen with 140 in his 18-year career (100 as a Dodger), and Koufax with 137 in his 12 MLB seasons.

Dodgers right-hander Don Sutton finished his incredible 22-year Hall of Fame career with 178 complete games, 156 of them as a Dodger.
(Photo courtesy of The Sporting News)

To really put this into perspective, Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw, who will enter his 12th major league season in 2019 as a 30-year-old, has 25 career complete games – most among all current Dodgers pitchers. However, Kershaw had zero complete games in 2018. Then again, none of the 11 other Dodgers who started a game in 2018 did either. In fact, during the entire 2018 season, there were a grand total of 42 complete games thrown among all 30 MLB teams, with no pitcher throwing three (eight pitchers threw two).

Future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw has thrown 25 complete games in his 11-year MLB career; none bigger than this one on June 18, 2014, when he no-hit the Colorado Rockies at Dodger Stadium. (Photo credit – Ron Cervenka)

That being said, of the 26 starts that Kershaw made during his injury-shortened 2018 season, 20 of them met Lowe’s “quality start” criterion; this in spite of being on the disabled list from May 2 through June 23 due to back issues.

How did the other Dodgers starters fare quality start-wise in 2018, you ask?

Former Dodger and now Cincinnati Reds left-hander Alex Wood and right-hander Walker Buehler tied for second on the staff behind Kershaw with 13 quality starts in their respective 27 and 23 starts. Behind them was left-hander Rich Hill with 10 quality starts in his 24 starts. Right-hander Ross Stripling and lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu each had nine quality starts in their 33 and 15 starts respectively, with right-hander Kenta Maeda bringing up the rear with five quality starts in his 20 games started.

But here’s the kicker. With it being (very) widely known that Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and perhaps even more so Dodgers manager Dave Roberts have made the five-inning mark their analytics-driven starting pitching threshold, it is quite possible – maybe even probable – that even the quality start is in danger of extinction.

So what will be next? Will some sabermetrics-driven beat writer or baseball analyst come up with some new statistic to replace the quality start? Will we soon have a ‘Pretty Good start,’ or a ‘So-So start,’ or a ‘Not Too Bad start?’

Man, I miss Koufax, Drysdale, Sutton, and Osteen.

Play Ball!

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10 Responses to “Quality is in the Eye of the Beholder”

  1. Bill Hope Bill Hope says:

    Sutton was with the Dodgers when I was a kid. I knew he was good but I didn’t realize at the time how good. I thought every team had guys that were as good as him. I wish I would have appreciated him more back then. I didn’t understand why he would leave the Dodgers.

    • Ron Cervenka says:

      Likewise.

      I believe that Sutton was severely overshadowed by the ridiculously incredible (and historic) careers of Koufax and Drysdale, while he quietly amassed an outstanding Hall of Fame career of his own.

      Sutton may not have had the flash and flair of Sandy and Don, but because of his remarkable longevity, he owns MANY Dodgers franchise records.

      Although though the crux of this article is (was) to show the blatant change of pitching mentality in today’s game (i.e., the quality start thing vs. complete game thing), it is absolutely impossible not to see – and respect – just how great Don Sutton really was.

  2. Boxout7 says:

    Interesting stuff!

    Cy Young, 749 complete games, 511 wins, 238 no-decision or loss complete games.

    Sandy Koufax, done at age 30.

    Don Drysdale, done at age 32.

    Don Sutton, interestingly never threw 300 innings in a year, which was pretty common in those days.

    Different times. With today’s analytics we aren’t likely to see many complete games again. MLB teams now try harder to prevent injuries to expensive starter’s arms from overuse and analytics tell us that third time through the line-up is a killer. Add to that, deeper better bullpens, the new norm, 5 inning starts.

    Oh course, when I sense the other team’s starter tiring, I find myself wishing they’d leave him in longer.

    Beef up that bullpen Dodgers.

  3. SoCalBum says:

    Quality start = 6IP and 3 ER = ERA of 4.50 — I’m not anxious for the Dodgers to acquire starting pitchers with that ERA. 2 ER over 6 IP = 3.00 ERA; now that is a quality start.

    • It is amazing to see that in 2018 Dodger starters did not have a single CG. But it’s a different game today for sure. Yes, and to me as well, a Quality start is 6 innings with 2 runs allowed or less. A starter that has an average ERA of 3.00 or even lower is the ideal SP for my team.

    • Redlands_Dodger says:

      A 4.50 ERA is not quality; it will have you on the next plane to Oklahoma.

    • Bob says:

      Back when Greinke was with the Dodgers he and Kersh agreed that a quality start should be 7 innings, 2ER.

  4. James2 says:

    I Googled Cy Young and found a bunch of Gumby pictures… coincidence, I think not.

  5. As for myself, I’m getting use to seeing if a starter can complete 5 innings in order to qualify for a win.

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